Hurricane Bill Surf Forecast
Hurricane Bill Surf Forecast
Thurs 20th August UTC
By MSW Hurricane Forecaster - Published on 20th August 2009 | Viewed 14167 times.
UPDATED Thurs 20th 8.30am UTC
Latest Detailed Hurricane Surf Breakdowns By Location
Too much love can be a scary thing. Hurricane Bill is showing worrying signs of becoming a full on bunny boiling maniac. Where 4ft@16 seconds looked fun and 9ft@16 seconds started to look intimidating current calls look downright ridiculous. Bearing in mind that a large part of the East coast doesn’t have the setups to deal with significant size these forecast numbers are moving beyond the exciting possibility of solid surf into a different realm:
Central Florida Peak: 11ft@16seconds potential for 15-20ft Waves*
Outer Banks Peak: 15ft@16seconds potential for 20-25ft Waves
New Jersey Peak: as above
New England Peak: as above
Nova Scotia Peak: 30ft@16seconds with storm force winds possibly stronger.
(*Potential is based on an ideal setup with deep water run in able to handle a swell this size which is unlikely to be the case at these locations)
So the story now is firstly one of finding any spot that’ll handle this kind of swell. Hard to imagine there’s much to the south that can do this and with the winds themselves now expected to impact on spots further north it looks like surfing this one through saturdays peak is perhaps a long shot IF it comes in as currently modelled. As you head further south down the Florida coast you should be able to pick your size as you head into the shadow of the islands, and of course post peak there will be, at some stage, a managable wave if there’s sand left on the beach to hold it, although these swells come and go fast so pick your moment with care.
Second story is that the storm, previously forecast to stay clear of the coast, now shows some probability of making landfall or at least bringing storm force coastal winds from North Carolina northwards with a strong probability of making landfall in Nova Scotia. The image below gives the latest wind speed probabilities:
Probability of storm force winds.
© 2009 - NHC/NOAA
The caveat here for us as forecasters is Bill is still 1600 miles from the coast. It still hasn’t turned North West as strongly predicted to do so. It’s maintaining it’s category four intensity as predicted but this is Hurricane forecasting - it’s a blow by blow hour by hour attempt to keep an eye on pretty much the most powerful and destructive force in nature - it WILL be subject to change so plan for the unexpected and keep an eye here for our regular update. We’re pulling detailed revised information from the NHC and hurricane swell models from the NOAA every six hours which will be at your fingertips for free day and night as we watch this one in.
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